Collaborative Sales Forecasting
Three Key Steps in Effective S&OP Change Management

Implementing an effective S&OP process requires effective management of personnel, systems, and process issues. Of these three areas, the change management aspects of personnel issues are often the most challenging. Organizational change strategies fail most frequently due to the inability of management to lead their teams through the transition process. Are supply planners and demand planners communicating? Is sales operations providing timely input? Are issues being resolved in a timely manner? How will disagreements be resolved?
As a corporate process, S&OP requires strong leadership and a keen understanding of change management.
Understand Change
There are two elements to organizational change: Personal transitions and Organizational transitions.
An old paradigm in change management was that it was only the organizational that was going through the change, de-emphasizing the personal aspect. But an organization is made up of a triad of people, process and technology. We understand that the only part of that triad that might have resistance to change is the personal. As a result, an organizational change strategy must focus not only on organizational transitions; it must also focus on personal transitions. From a leadership perspective, this means proactively understanding the affect on various stakeholders and leaders, for example looking at:
• Who in the organization is going to gain and lose power – S&OP team? Supply team? Demand Team? Sales. Has a fully powered S&OP team been created?
• Who in the organization might experience a positive or a negative careers move
• Who might be exposed when the changes show how poorly things were done in the past
• Who has the most to risk by making these changing and why
In order to understand, from each of their perspectives the perceived risk, time should be spent conducting interviews as well as a leader and stakeholder analysis. The reason this is critical to building sustainable change is that you will then know what the objections are and how best to be proactive in handling those.
From this process one can gain buy-in with the people who can give or decline support for the project. If the stakeholder or leader feels as though you have their best interest in mind, they are more likely to support suggested changes down the road. If they do not feel included, they can block the project altogether, even if the changes make good business sense. The leader interviews and analysis is a process that needs special attention, unique planning and tailored action to ensure that more resistance is not created
Next, leaders need to understand the three phases of personal transition, none of which can be skipped or discounted if they want a positive return on the investment. The three phases include:
• Endings
• The Neutral Zone
• New Beginnings
Many leaders ignore the first two, expecting employees to be in the new beginnings stage right after a change is announced. However, this means ignoring how humans process change. Since all humans go through this process, it needs to be acknowledged as part of the leadership activities.
The financial impact (business performance/productivity and project time line) to the transition phases can be significant. The depth (loss of productivity) and width (increased time line) of the transition phases is directly proportional to how well the change is handled by leaders. If leaders do a poor job of leading change, the Valley of Despair will widen and deepen, meaning that the project will run over budget, over schedule and the scope will creep. However, if leaders have been trained in change management, research shows they can skillfully lead employees through the transition phases with the least amount of impact to the project.
The stages of managing the personal transitions include employee:
• Awareness and Understanding
• Buy-in
• Ownership.
When leaders have mastered leading personal transitions, they can lead the overall organizational transition. When they have mastered organizational change leadership, they will be able to reduce the time and productivity dip as seen in Figure 2. The goal with teaching leaders to lead change is to reduce the personal transition dip and thereby reduce the organizational transition dip.
Pursue Transformational Leadership Skills
In order to be successful with transformational scale change, leaders must deploy different skills, some of which they may need to add to their current skill set. Some leaders may also need to evaluate their attitude and beliefs about how to handle change. Through an edification process, leaders can begin that shift.
We have found that the leadership skills required for leading large-scale change versus day-to-day management are in fact very different. One of the first aspects of leading change is to understand that 80 percent of any group will resist change. The other 20 percent are those that will get behind the change and pull the other 80 percent along. In order to motivate those 20 percent and eventually enroll the other 80 percent, a leader may need new leadership skills. What you don’t want is to create resistance in the 80 percent group, because no matter how excited the 20 percent group is, negative group-think is nearly impossible to overcome.
Research also shows that one of the primary reasons that so few programs produce the expected results is that change leaders don’t understand the distinction between asking versus telling, when they lead. The traditional methodology used for leading change projects requires these steps:
1. Identify the problem
2. Tell people how to do their jobs differently
3. Spend huge amounts of time, energy and money trying to overcome resistance and recover from decreased morale
Many leaders tell people what they need to do differently, versus spending the time to enroll and engage the employees in an interactive dialogue where they are asked what they think. The telling is part of what puts people in a threatened mode I it is easier when someone else, especially an expert, gives us the answer. The problems come later when resistance develops and someone else’s approach does not work for us. Asking versus telling is one of the keys to reducing the resistance to change.
An effective leader of change also understands that change naturally creates conflict. A leader’s ability to handle conflict will directly impact their effectiveness in leading change. As agents of change, a leader’s responsibility is to take the change, which is normally thought of as crisis, and communicate it as an opportunity. In order to do that, they need to have an understanding of what makes the conflict improve and what makes it worse.
3. Develop an Leadership Engagement Action Plan
With an understanding of how change works and the skills necessary for effective transformation, Project leaders and executives can assess their own change leadership skills and create an engagement action plan for the lifecycle of the initiative. This plan should deal with clearing organizational resistance, participating in early visioning sessions, supporting the project delivery team, communicating clearly and repeatedly on the reason for change, articulating and supporting the business case and truly being engaged in the transformation effort.
Experience has shown that leaders get actively involved when there is a crisis in an S&OP project are able to quickly resolve issues. A reflective and pro-active leader in this situation should recognize that earlier involvement – real involvement and engagement many times can prevent serious issues. However, a formal change management process properly initiated early is the best way to prevent such issues from occurring.
Sphere: Related ContentTiger Woods, S&OP and Elephants
As Tiger Woods s
lowly recedes from visibility in today’s fast paced, polyphonic, multi-media environment, I am driven to identify some sort of meaning in it all. And, in a world in which bits, bytes and terabytes of data stream before us daily this is no easy task. Living in an age when global conflict shares a table with global social networking, creating personal connections has become the Holy Grail. On occasion connections do occur. When this happens the information that fog my life temporarily lifts. So, ending a long day immersed in Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP), I ponder — do S&OP, Tiger Woods and Elephants share something in common?
At its best, a highly collaborative, data-driven Sales and Operations Planning process creates visibility. The consequences of bad choice become clear. And, elephants sitting in the room – or perhaps obsolescent inventory lying in a warehouse – cannot be avoided. In good S&OP scenarios are created, alternatives examined, and the path forward is understood. Often, the process of S&OP itself surfaces important issues that might otherwise have been missed. Were there early indications of bad choice in Tiger Wood’s behavior? Was his life story of discipline and perfection to good to be true? Was there an elephant in the room all along that we were all ignoring?
We all love a hero. And of course, we seek to avoid unpleasant experience. While the world worshipped Tiger, Tiger was spending his energy struggling to contain a boiling maelstrom of problems. There indeed was an elephant in Tiger’s room and neither he nor the rest of the world was willing to confront this painful fact until the elephant crashed through the house. The good news is that life will go on for the rest of us and Tiger will survive the storm.
However, in today’s troubled economy, corporate executives cannot afford to ignore the elephant’s in the room. There is no room for bad choice. Constant vigilance and decisive action are imperative. Sales and Operations Planning is a process that can elucidate the elephant in the room. Moreover, Steelwedge S&OP drives better decision making and good choice. Did a major customer in a remote region of the world just cancel a major order? If so, how should we react? Should we discount aging inventory before promoting new products? Can we improve profitability with a different price structure? The answer to these questions is the fuel that powers successful corporate governance. And, indeed the story of Tiger Woods, Elephants and S&OP provides an important message.
The economy is getting better, oil prices are up…what next?
Anyone following the news is aware of the now steady drumbeat (finally!) of good news on the economic front. Exports are up, Europe is doing better, home sales are up, and, of course, the stock market is up. But wait, what follows next? Oil prices are up. Soon, commodities prices will start rising. Then transportation costs will rise.
So what does this mean for manufacturers and how does it relate to Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP)?? Clearly, after many quarters of focus on efficient operations and lean inventory management, the focus will once again shift to managing supply chain costs. Transportation costs, materials costs, and eventually labor costs will eventually rise to prominence.
Are you prepared?
Effective planning is essential. How will your operations change if there is another oil spike? What will you do if a port is closed down by a strike? How do transportation economics impact lead times? These are just a few of the questions that must be understood by planners.
Ensuring that your S&OP Plan incorporates scenarios that mitigate these concerns is fast becoming essential. Ensuring that your team is aware and focused is even more essential. Today’s S&OP solutions such as Compass Express by Steelwedge offer the perfect antidote for these kind of challenges.
Sphere: Related ContentDoes Toyota Need to Forecast? When Lean Manufacturing Doesn’t Work
The relationship between sales forecasting, demand planning, and lean principles has been analyzed, evaluated, and debated for decades. However, in light of recent market volatility, this debate is final reaching resolution – executives overseeing even the most lean, JIT-focused supply chains, need to planning.
Chris Chiappinelli, a blogger associated with the Managing Automation Blog offers the following :
“Just in Time, in its purest form, is a thing of beauty. Read Toyota’s description of it on their website — it sounds like poetry in motion. But the marketplace doesn’t care for poetry. We don’t want to place our order and watch the gears — perfectly meshed though they may be — smoothly churn out our product. We want our hamburgers pre-cooked and waiting for us under a heat lamp. In that world, Just-in-Time has no place. It’s a museum piece, a relic of a more patient era. In this world of pre-heated hamburgers and mass customization, Toyota and its counterparts are forced to produce not to actual demand, but to expected demand. And that, my friends, not only belies JIT; it creates a huge amount of risk.”
“A New York Times article illustrates just how far from its roots Toyota strayed:Previously, plants operated under the sales force’s direction of “you make them, we will sell them,” said Real C. Tanguay, president of Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada. Now the philosophy is, “if we can sell them, then you will make them,” he said.” “Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Who would have predicted that a Toyota executive would ever sum up the company’s philosophy as, “You make them, we will sell them”?”
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Steelwedge enables customers to better understand and anticipate demand through forecasting, collaborative engagement of field sales, and analysis of changes in sales pipeline opportunities. In today’s world, these are vital processes.
Sphere: Related ContentOnDemand Sales and Operations Planning in 30 Days for SAP Customers
Steelwedge today announced a new release called “Compass Express S&OP” which offers a highly scalable “out-of-the-box” S&OP solution that can be implemented in less than thirty days. The solution leverages Steelwedge’s award-winning Sales Planning and Performance Management Platform (SPPM) and advanced partnership with SAP. The solution also draws on leading-edge technological developments to usher in a level of ease-of-implementation and ease-of-use never before available.Steelwedge Compass Express S&OP delivers the full range of functionality available in SPPM in a packaged, best practice-based format that expedites implementation, integration and training. Standard functionality includes Executive S&OP, collaborative demand planning, revenue planning, and performance management. The next release of Compass Express will also include direct integration with SAP BusinessObjects Xcelsius and SAP BusinessObjects Explorer for enhanced data analysis, reporting and business intelligence capabilities. Steelwedge Compass Express S&OP also includes standard integration with Salesforce.com (SFDC).
Steelwedge Compass Express was developed in response to growing demand from manufacturing companies in North America, Europe and Asia for an easy, highly cost-effective packaged OnDemand S&OP solution with standard integration into SAP, very low upfront costs, low total-cost-of-ownership (TCO) and a subscription pricing model. “Steelwedge Compass S&OP represents a major milestone for the software industry. Compass Express offers a packaged, OnDemand S&OP solution with standard integration points that enables manufacturing companies to increase planning visibility and improve profitability,” said Glen Margolis, CEO.
Steelwedge Compass Express Release is scheduled for general availability in Q2 of 2009.
Sphere: Related ContentSteelwedge, the leader in OnDemand Sales and Operations Planning Solutions
Annual Sales up 160% over 2006 from existing and new customers deploying Steelwedge OnDemand Solutions; New Partnerships with Salesforce.com and Teradata
Pleasanton, CA – November 20, 2007 – Steelwedge Software , the innovator in OnDemand (SaaS) Collaborative Sales Forecasting and automated Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP), announced today that 2006 to 2007 sales grew by over 160%.
Representative customers launching Steelwedge Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) applications include Juniper Networks, the leading provider of networking and security solutions; Honeywell, a diversified technology and manufacturing company; Nvidia, the worldwide leader in programmable graphics processor technologies; and Monster Cable, the world’s leading manufacturer of high performance audio cables. Examples of customers choosing the Steelwedge OnDemand Collaborative Sales Forecasting and Planning platform include Spansion, the world’s largest pure-play provider of Flash memory solutions and, EDS, a leading provider of information technology and business process outsourcing services.
New Partners include Salesforce.com AppExchange and Teradata. In September, Steelwedge announced the release of its OnDemand Sales and Operations Planning solution (S&OP) for salesforce.com’s AppExchange, extending CRM functionality to provide comprehensive sales forecasting and sales and operations planning (S&OP) solutions for manufacturers of complex products in the AppExchange high tech and manufacturing vertical. In October, Steelwedge entered into an agreement with Teradata, the data warehousing leader, to provide the S&OP component in Teradata’s SAP APO Accelerator enabling large enterprises to achieve real Demand Drive Supply Networks (DDSNs.)
“We are pleased that the world’s leading high technology manufacturing companies are selecting Steelwedge to drive their sales and operations planning and collaborative forecasting processes,” said Steelwedge CEO Glen Margolis, “Steelwedge’s unparalleled technology and S&OP expertise ensures that our customers quickly derive enormous value.”
ABOUT STEELWEDGE
Steelwedge Software. Inc. links Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) processes to existing systems through familiar desktop applications including email and Excel. Steelwedge helps companies improve the effectiveness of their S&OP, Collaborative Planning, Sales Forecasting, sales planning, and Performance Management activities. Steelwedge customers include Harley-Davidson, Hewlett-Packard, Honeywell International, Emerson Electric, Juniper Networks, Monster Cable, Nvidia, Spansion, Tellabs, Enterasys Networks and Teledyne.
For more information, please visit www.steelwedge.com.
TAGS: sales forecasting, sales planning, S&OP
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