Earthquakes, Oil Spikes, Peak Oil & Actuarial Analysis: Is it time to think about S&OP from a different perspective?

Do companies need to substantiate and quantify critical risk scenarios as part of their planning process?

Financial analysts evaluate return and earnings potential on a risk-adjusted basis. In other words, analysts incorporate an understanding of the volatility associated with returns when evaluating the underlying value of a business.

Today the only certainty is uncertainty.  How can one plan in a world seemingly dominated by unanticipated terrorist events, political upheaval in and around oil producing nations, natural disasters striking presumably well prepared, developed economies wreaking global havoc, and energy production disasters of all sorts?

What does this mean for planners? Validated and informed risk management and risk-based decision making is more important than ever.  Quantitative support and innovative solutions can help measure and estimate impacts; facilitate key business, financial and operational scenario management, and reduce the uncertainty attached to strategic growth, budgeting, change, and macroeconomic volatility.  In this environment sales and operations planning must truly be transformed into some sort of risk-adjusted integrated business planning scenarios (IBP).

What Will You Say When Shareholders Ask: “What Happened?”

Accurate quantification and assessment of risk is paramount to an organization’s success.  Executives need to ensure that their organizations are undertaking an efficient and effective process of quantifying risk.

Are key decisions made in the context of risk-adjusted scenarios?  Should we be doing some sort of actuarial analysis?

Is there an understanding of the full range of financial outcomes associated with a particular S&OP scenario?

Can we able to back up our scenarios with substantiated, sound, risk analysis?

Do we know how much risk and/or volatility can be sustained?

Does our organization have the right tools to navigate inevitable “Black Swan” events that will disrupt the best laid S&OP scenarios?

Are we confident that we have posted liabilities to match the risks our organization faces?

Who’s looking out for you?   In the coming months, we will explore this further.

Information Overload: Filtering for Expert S&OP Advice

There’s a lot of really good information out there about S&OP, supply chain management, demand forecasting, business intelligence… but you’re busy. You’re probably too busy to keep up with everything. Seriously – do you have time to read the scores of books and journals and blogs that promise to fill you in on everything? Somehow, you need to find a way to filter out what you need to know, which is the best advice, and what really isn’t worth the free download.  There are some terrific resources out there, if you know where to look. Sometimes, however, the most obvious filter is to go straight to the top of the field. A few words from the acknowledged experts addressing the most important questions of the day can save you a lot of time and money.

Along these lines, some of our folks have posted thought-provoking discussions with Lora Cecere, a partner with Altimeter Group, and Blake Johnson, a Stanford University professor, on our website. These are short videos in a series – you only have to listen to what you need to know right now. You can always come back for other topics. Yes, we’re going to ask you to register once, but after that it’s a free ride.  In the series’ first installment, Lora Cecere discusses the business challenges that are driving S&OP adoption. You’ll learn why Lora has concluded that companies with strong S&OP processes and tools are flourishing in today’s economy, and in fact, are able to sense changes in demand five times faster than their competitors. Lora is a partner with Altimeter Group and is known as a supply chain visionary who understands technology. She brings seven years of industry analyst expertise coupled with two decades of manufacturing, marketing and software expertise. She knows her stuff!

In the series’ second installment, Blake Johnson, Ph.D. explains how leading companies are incorporating demand and supply uncertainty into their S&OP process to overcome the challenge of demand volatility. You’ll learn why Blake encourages leading companies to forecast a range of potential demand so that managers can confidently evaluate trade-offs to achieve the optimal level of supply chain flexibility. A consulting professor at Stanford University, Blake is an internationally recognized expert in the field of supply chain risk and flexibility.

These are the first videos in our S&OP Master Class series. We hope you’ll find them helpful and informative. We’re doing our best to get information out there, but if there’s something specific that you need, let us know and we’ll see what we can do!

Explore Steelwedge Software to get the best advice with just a little effort.

Why is the SaaS Adoption Rate Rising in Spite of the Downturn?

The week’s Blog entry is provided courtesy of Christian Smagg, a respected French SaaS expert. Further commentary by Christian can be found at http://www.saastream.com/my_weblog/   Christian’s experience is very simliar to the Steelwedge experience on a daily basis – demand for SaaS appliciations are rising.

As experienced in previous economic downturns, companies that invest smartly during the bad times, emerge quicker, and better equipped to grow faster after the recession. Thinking creatively about how to do more with less is the key to IT innovation during challenging times and allow companies not only to survive but also to seize the extraordinary opportunities that arise during periods of vast uncertainty. When you think about it, creative application of new technologies during weak economies actually gave rise to huge waves of productivity like Software-as-a-Service, Web 2.0 or social networking.

But fear is driving decisions at many companies these days, causing this unhealthy lock-up of budgets. Current miasma should not slow down or prevent companies from innovating and creating value so as to survive, weather the economic storm or even outperform competition.

Financial crises are often having a huge impact on IT departments, resulting in significant increases in business activity, placing greater burden on IT resources and forcing them to find new ways to boost productivity while slashing expenses. At times like these, it is highly recommended that companies seriously consider leveraging applications delivered via a software-as-a-service (SaaS) model, harnessing the broader value that these solutions can play in not only moving the business forward but moving it beyond the current economic crisis as well.

Indeed, CIOs should take a much closer look at SaaS solutions as a way to avoid significant up-front investments in new software platforms by simply “renting” on-demand applications that would provide added returns where most needed: the top line. SaaS would empower IT teams to achieve and sustain efficiency and quality, while facilitating the kind of cost-effectiveness that becomes a top priority during a recession.

SaaS is providing a faster and more economical way for organizations to deploy, run and utilize softwares. This flexibility is particularly valuable during economic uncertainty for the following obvious reasons:

1. Reduced upfront costs. SaaS makes it more affordable for budget-conscious organizations to implement the new applications they need to execute effectively their “recession-proofing” plans.

2. Reduced in-house IT overheads and increased focus on strategic IT projects. SaaS is helping the business through the economic downturn by freeing IT staff from deploying and maintaining in-house solutions.

3. Continuous quality of service. Even if business activity and the demand placed on technology solutions are often increasing significantly.

4. Lower licensing and maintenance costs, reduced overall cost of ownership, also smoothed by the actual SaaS subscription model.

5. Quicker, easier and less risky deployment and upgrade to new future versions. This reduced implementation risks together with the ability to respond more nimbly to changing business needs while smoothly and incrementally adding new capabilities are making this option significantly more attractive in tougher economic times.

A major advantage of SaaS solutions is the optimum flexibility provided, enabling companies to downsize or reorganize while minimizing waste by instantly reducing or increasing the size and scope of their solution, at any time.

These benefits mean that SaaS is now being increasingly used by companies in a number of areas, not only including Customer Relationship Management (CRM) and Sales Force Automation but also enterprise collaboration, web conferencing and back-office requirements such as expense management, procurement, Supply Chain Management, Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) and Human Resources functions to name a few.

In tougher economic times, companies want to shed the extra costs and risks inherent in large, long-term IT implementation projects. It is therefore becoming obvious that, as companies aggressively implement cost-cutting measures, IT organizations that leverage SaaS solutions will realize tremendous cost savings, while continuing to support the business’ needs in the most flexible and effective manner.

SaaS is already an important part of mainstream IT in companies both large and small. Its basic value propositions are now widely established and accepted, including low upfront costs, simplified software management (for both maintenance and upgrades), effective security, high reliability, and increasingly, integrative capabilities to bridge data and functional gaps that exist as a result of existing systems and processes. It is therefore expected that SaaS solutions will gain significant share during and immediately following the current economic turmoil, since offering customers the ability to continue to innovate at a substantially lower absolute cost of entry and ongoing TCO, during a period of intense capital spending constraint.

For further insight on this topic, you may want to review a recent Gartner survey analysis focusing on identifying usage patterns and key trends for SaaS within the enterprise, including SaaS usage per market segments, migration activity between deployment models, projected future usage and investment for both on-premises and on-demand, and the state of governance policies within enterprises currently using or planning to use SaaS.

The Chips are Down, Now What?

With each passing day, the news seems to get worse – Chip makers faced a 29% drop in demand in January, PC makers are suffering, Dell continues to cut-back, Spansion files for Chapter 11.  Now what?

What on earth does one do to manage through times that seem to be impossibly difficult?  Where to start?

Our perspective is that the sooner or later the pain will end.  Even for chip makers, there is base demand for the technology that drives global living.  But, how does one predict when the patient will stop bleeding?  When  does the sales forecast inflect?  When does demand finally start matching potential supply – when does one stop cutting?

While it is impossible to predict the future, reducing latency in decision making through effective sales and operations planning (S&OP), creating a truly integrated business planning process by integrating financial planning with S&OP, and updating plans weekly if not daily is an imperative.

In the old work, the idea of listening to field sales and operationalizing that feedback into the integrated planning process was a luxury.  In today’s brave new world, it is mandatory.

Incorporating both qualitative and quantitative inputs into the planning process and carefully evaluating the early warning signals providing by oppotunity tracking and CRM tools such as Salesforce.com (SFDC) is now a survival skill.

Obtaining a wholistic view of the world by connecting historic buying patterns provided by ERP systems such as SAP  with current opportunity feedback provided by Salesforce, evaluating financial plans creating by planning tools such as SAP BPC or Oracle Hyperion with current state S&OP plans is fundamental.  The good news today is that a handful of companies have created software-as-a-service, pay-as-you-go offerings to support these planning processes.

Steelwedge software’s Executive S&OP offering is unique in so much as it enables companies to improve there planning processes in as little as 60 days.  While 60 days can seem like a lifetime in today’s economy, improved planning is clearly a survival issue.

To quote Benjamin Franklin, “an investment in knowledge always pays the best interest.”

Why Oracle and SAP users need Steelwedge

Oracle and SAP have try to offer S&OP solutions on an on-again off-again basis for many years.   Oracle first tried to build, then acquired solutions in an attempt to solve this mission-critical business problem.   However, they have still not been successful which is why Oracle customers continue to invest in Steelwedge.  Why?  For one, S&OP is a challenging problem that requires the kind of technical and business sophistication that is just not the forte’ of end-to-end suite mega-vendors.  It’s not just software.  Moreoever, it is inevitable that S&OP requires cross-integration with a variety of external legacy and packaged applications – never a forte’ of ERP vendors.

While the same challenges apply to SAP, SAP’s initial effort to solve this problem failed because of an overly technical focus, lack of a big picture view of the world, and the adoption of a clunky, overly complex solution that proved to expensive to use and presumed heavy investment in background infrastructure.

So where are we today?  The need to bridge sales and operations is larger than ever, the number of initiatives is growing rapidly, and yet one can easily name the number of vendors in one hand.

The road ahead will most certainly need to be on the kind of SOA-based, open, flexible, and highly configurable MDA (model driven architecture that is the basis for Steelwedge.