In this blog post, Tom Wallace answers some key questions from his perspective.

Q. Is S&OP ideal for large organizations which have their own manufacturing, inventory & products? Is S&OP applicable to a service company?

Yes to both. Some of the most successful users of S&OP are large organizations with manufacturing, inventory and product: BASF, the largest chemical company in the world; Procter & Gamble, the largest consumer packaged goods company; and Staples, a very large on-line retailer. S&OP has been shown to work well in organizations that don’t make physical products as well: banks, central engineering staffs, IT departments and the like.

Q. Should the same forecast drive both manufacturing and profit and loss?

Absolutely. The forecast, once authorized, becomes the one and only one statement of future demand. Only with this can you achieve a “one-number process,” which means running the business internally with one set of numbers.

Q. How do you balance continuous improvement to the S&OP process against over-engineering the process?

Listen to the people actually using the process, including senior management. The best way I know to drive continuous improvement is, at the end of each executive meeting, ask each person present to rate the meeting on a scale of 10 and give 50 –or fewer– words why, finishing with the leader of the business. Those people will tell you where to improve and where not to.

Q. What is the best approach to organize promotional activities in the forecast process?

Within the 5-Step Process of S&OP, Step 2 is Demand Planning; this includes the addition of promotions and related activities by people from organizations like Marketing, Sales Promotion, and Merchandising. The promotions are added to the forecast early, well in advance of the consensus forecast going to Step 3, Supply Planning.

Q. What are the main pitfalls if you are in an S&OP process implementation?

The primary pitfall, much greater than all others, is to fail to educate the people in S&OP. Note the use of the word “educate” rather than “train.” That’s deliberate: training tells people how to run the software; education addresses how to run the business using this new tool.

Please write to us at info@steelwedge.com should you have any questions or need elucidation on any of the concepts mentioned in this blog.

Have a Happy New Year!

Q: How do you best manage the proliferation of S&OP meetings? People inherently object to having meetings for meetings sake!

It is important to differentiate between meeting and working sessions. Executive S&OP meetings are intended to be very efficient and structured, given the CXO level participants. These meetings should have a very specific agenda with clearly defined goals for the meeting.

Working sessions are more of a combination of structured agenda as well as unstructured time to discuss collaboratively on various topics. Demand review and supply review meetings are examples of these working sessions.

From a technology perspective, the solution should provide the ability to document business context, assumptions, action items and opportunities for further follow-up and tracking.

Q: How do you handle “what if” analysis & scenario analysis within Steelwedge?

Steelwedge provides a platform that balances supply, demand and finance and enables the end-to-end S&OP process. Scenario management and what-if analysis can be implemented at any stage of this process: demand forecasting, supply planning or executive S&OP. For example, as part of the out of the box application called Compass Express that is implemented by this platform, 26 scenarios can be created as part of the Executive S&OP process. These scenarios can be compared based on pre-defined metrics and the best scenario can be ‘promoted’ to be the plan of record for the organization.

Q: How do you do the Bill of Material explosion and how is SW exploding the confirmed demand plan to material requirements?

The Steelwedge S&OP platform has the ability to model both a standard bill of material as well as a statistical bill of material (attach rates).  As part of the Rough Cut Capacity Planning process, the consensus demand forecast at a finished goods level is converted into material requirements at a component level for the purpose of performing a build-versus-buy decision using the sourcing template. In cases of configured products,  the dependent as well as independent demand associated with components is computed as part of this process.

Q: S&OP is limited to quantitative views of supply and demand. How do you validate qualitative assumptions about external factors?

Steelwedge estimates that only about 50% of the decision making at S&OP meetings is based on quantitative factors – the rest of the decisions are made based on tribal knowledge or ‘gut’ feel. It is important to capture these decision factors as part of the process so that the validity of these assumptions can be tracked later. It is expected that over a period of time these assumptions are re-evaluated and quantitative approaches are incorporated instead. We understand that collaborative planning and S&OP is never going to be completely fact based and that the solution should support the ability of the end users to make informed decisions based on data as well as qualitative factors.

Q: How do we get end users more engaged in the process. What kind of reports / alerts are commonly presented at S&OP meetings?

Excel continues to be the most commonly used business planning tool. That is why Steelwedge provides a platform that utilizes Enterprise Enabled Excel, which powers the S&OP process on top of the Excel application. A familiar paradigm is one way to get end users more engaged in the process.

Another common problem that sales reps face as part of S&OP process is that they are asked to input data into very complex Demand Planning applications, resulting in loss of interest and use.  Also,  sales people are often completely mobile and don’t have the internet bandwidth to provide inputs into these Demand Planning applications.  Steelwedge addresses this two ways:

a) One Click Planning provides an event driven push based mechanism to alert sales executives of areas that require their input. When the users click on an email that they receive from the application, they are taken directly to a template that they can fill out for products that they have access to.

b) Offline tools – this allows sales reps to input data without being connected to the internet. Once they log into the internet, they can do a net change submit to the server to sync up the data.

What used to be an annual spreadsheet event is no longer an option for global businesses that have to navigate and course correct for the daily onslaught of economic, political and environmental events that could derail the best laid plans.

Supply chain complexity is multiplying as businesses become more global and interconnected. To remain competitive, organizations are changing how they source , sell and develop products. The rate of product obsolescence in consumer electronics market alone puts business agility to the test. Add to that the disruption and risk that is part of the volatile global marketplace, and business leaders recognize that the “new normal” is likely nothing like last year…or even last month. Agility is imperative; and it is keeping business leaders up at night.

Next week, On December 7th, I look forward to leading a discussion at the Supply Chain and Logistics Summit in Dallas in a workshop I will be presenting there: “S&OP: Enabling Agility and Flexibility in a Global Organization.” Sales and Operations Planning is the ammunition companies require today to combat complexity, respond to market events faster and manage risks. In this session, we will look at how companies need to create an S&OP plan, ensure that it is executed well so that the desired business performance is obtained to gain profits. In other words, S&OP is not only about the strategy but also about how the strategy can be executed.

I hope to see you in Dallas at my session or at the Steelwedge booth ,#9, to understand how you are addressing business agility in your organization. But even if you can’t be in Dallas, we’d like to hear from you on what agility issues keep you up at night.

To that end, we’re excited that Emerson Therm O-Disc, a long-time beneficiary of the Steelwedge S&OP solution will be speaking on the topic of planning best practices.  The presentation is part of The Supply Chain Forecasting & Planning Conference (Europe), organized by the Institute of Business Forecasting and Planning and taking place on November 17 -18 in Amsterdam. The event brings together executives from leading high-tech, manufacturing and consumer products firms to discuss the fact that S&OP has risen in importance and is now a proven way to meet demand while optimizing supply chain costs.

Of course, we all know that great conversation requires that we leap outside of our comfort zone.  So, as seasoned S&OP conference goers, we’d like to share a few pointers on how to not miss out on the expertise that might be standing behind you in line at the buffet:

* Start your morning at the coffee urn. Meet people. Coffee is a sacred rite for most conference-goers – particularly when the festivities start at 7:30 AM. Be especially nice to our friends from other time zones. They’ll be the ones drinking directly from the spigot.

* Spare yourself a visit to the optometrist. Sit upfront. The fact remains that 12 point font still finds its way onto too many PowerPoint slides. We salute the truly studious who make it a point to sit within squinting distance.

* Be courageous. Ask questions. Contrary to popular belief, you don’t need a broadcasting degree to handle the microphone. Don’t hesitate to ask the speakers for more detail.

* Say hello to the vendors. They know a lot about S&OP too. Are you wondering how technology could enhance your S&OP process and your company’s overall performance? The nice people staffing the booths like nothing more than to talk S&OP and integrated business planning innovation. And as a bonus, they’re usually giving away cool perks.

Conference attendees will have the opportunity to explore how the Steelwedge solution provides companies with powerful capabilities to: match demand to relevant supply and capacity constraints; review all demand, inventory and supply plans simultaneously in revenue and profit as well as volume; run “what-if” scenarios to simulate the impact of changes to demand or supply; and conduct margin analysis live to evaluate the impact of these scenarios and report S&OP performance.

Hope to catch up with you by the coffee urn soon.

Click here to download the Steelwedge Solutions brochure.

Q. If Sales is more focused on opportunity conversion, who should build sales forecast and revenue plan? Is that Finance?

A. Sales should definitely focus on building the sales forecast based on opportunity conversion. Finance should focus on building the revenue plan.

In the near-term, Sales should be able to leverage the opportunity pipeline as a somewhat rationalized basis for the sales forecast. Beyond the opportunity pipeline horizon another basis for sales forecast is needed. Depending on accuracy this can take the form of the marketing forecast, the demand plan or in some cases the stat forecast. This also applies to industries that are not opportunity driven. Whatever the basis, it’s important Sales participates in building the sales forecast and has an ownership interest in it. There is no better way to bake the ‘field’ perspective into the forecast.

To reiterate the point expressed in the webinar, S&OP/IBP should really start at the first stage of the order lifecycle. This will bring greater engagement from the sales team.

Q. You mentioned integrating the Third Party Logistics providers into the S&OP process, could you please share with us an example of this and the benefits achieved?

A. An example of this is industries such as apparel which involve a short life cycle in terms of fashion changes or season changes but also involve offshore manufacturing which results in long lead-times. In-transit inventory plays a critical role in these industries because if the demand for products in the short term is greater or less than expected, any action that has to be taken to balance supply and demand should include in-transit inventory. 3PLs are the entity that have access to the in-transit inventory.

Q. Some relatively new and growing buzz in the Financial (FP&A) crowd is the concept of using Rolling Forecasts versus using the traditional annual budgeting processes.  This process seems more in line with what a traditional S&OP process suggests,  rolling forward forecasts over a 18-36 month time fence.  Thoughts?  Are you seeing client companies modifying annual financial planning processes to a more fluid rolling forecast process for all functions to use (Demand, Supply, Finance, Leadership)?.  (Note:  Let it Roll, Why More Companies Are Abandoning Budgets in Favor of Rolling Forecasts, about organizations including Unilever modifying their current annual processes to a rolling forecast process, seems to suggest that the monthly S&OP output gains much more importance and forces integration.)

A. We agree with this statement – Integrated Business Planning involves taking the output of the process and feeding it to the FP&A process in a rolling fashion. Due to Sarbanes-Oxley regulations we see existing customers adopting some intermediate steps to cleanse the S&OP data and incorporate it into the FP&A process.

Q. If one doesn’t have a time phased price definition, do you still recommend monetizing S&OP using current price and cost? Or is it better to start with a non-monetized S&OP?

A. The answer depends on the industry – are the prices highly variable across time buckets (maybe greater than +- 10%)? If so, then adopting an average price and cost will result in incorrect results. It is better to adopt a non-monetized S&OP in this case. If the price fluctuations are not as high, then we can adopt a current price and cost.

Q. We have a heterogeneous supply side organization, with complex supply networks in some areas and independent supply structures in other areas. On what level should one fix its S&OP process in terms of local, regional or global?

A. S&OP process needs to be driven more by the customer facing situation than the supply side. If there is a need to maintain a single face to a customer across multiple divisions and geographies then it is better to adopt a global S&OP process. If each business division has a separate customer base which is completely different (for instance commercial versus defense) then a regional S&OP process is sufficient.

On the supply side, if there are critical components that are shared across multiple divisions then allocation of the supply should be done to ensure that the material constraints are met.

Q. I want to follow-up on your experience with IBP in non-manufacturing environments. Any cases in upstream oil & gas? If so, which companies?

A. IBP is an effective methodology for any industry. While the measures may be different, the need to align supply, demand and finance is the same. In addition to manufacturing companies we have seen IBP used successfully in process, agriculture and service organizations.

Q: Do we need to have a customer forecast for every customer?

A. No, Steelwedge provides a forecastability analysis wherein we identify the key customers, products and regions for which statistical forecasting has to be done and where collaborative processes could be adopted.

In general, only the high priority customers require a customer level forecast.

Q. How to convince sales force that statistical approach can help versus them dealing with sku level forecasting based on a same-as-last-year approach?

A. It is difficult to convince sales about statistical forecasting approaches. A better approach would be to perform demand policy optimization to identity the SKUs for which statistical forecasting should be done. For the other SKUs, a collaborative process can be adopted with sales involvement. This will ensure that the sales team will focus on the SKUs that require their input.

Q. Can you expand on decisions analyzed by Solver optimization models?

A. Steelwedge provides a solver based approach to perform Rough Cut Capacity Planning versus a heuristic based approach. The following are some of the capabilities and decisions taken:

• Allocation/Supply Balancing – user selectable rules for allocating global demand to multiple markets
• Basic Constraints – lead times, batches, minimums, increments
• Load Levelling – slotting the demand into the gaps in the capacity plan, load levelling forward or back
• Supply Calendars – setting up work calendars for each resource

Q: Much of S&OP is product related. Do you agree that services (which are product-like) too could be supported by the S&OP process?

A. Yes. Any situation that requires the ability to balance demand with supply can be supported by the S&OP process. For example, an engineer-to-order environment supply includes the engineer’s hours available to perform engineering tasks and demand includes custom projects which require the engineer’s expertise.

A very interesting statistic – the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August 2011 – caught my eye this morning. This metric tracks the financial activity of purchasing managers connected to their acquisition of goods and services. It is calculated on a monthly basis through a survey conducted by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM).

Surprisingly, the statistic concluded:

“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in August for the 25th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 27th consecutive month,” say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business^®.”

A visual representation of the metric is below. Please note that the way the metric is captured, any value above 50 percent is an improvement and a 100 percent value indicates that everyone in the survey indicates an improvement. The degree of change month-over-month is reflected in the actual value. For instance, 65 percent PMI for a month is a bigger change than 55 percent PMI.

Figure: PMI for 2010-2011

Source: Institute of Supply Management

So what does this mean for the supply chain executive who is looking at S&OP and IBP initiatives?

1. Need for Operational Efficiency: According to the ISM survey, the overall sentiment is one of concern and caution. In this sort of a situation, increasing operational efficiency and reducing waste in the end-to-end value chain is the best approach that companies can take. S&OP and Lean are two weapons that companies can adopt in this endeavor. In fact ,we see that these two initiatives dovetail into one another when the S&OP plan needs to be executed.

1. Multi-business S&OP: According to the ISM survey, respondents in general are reporting reduced domestic sales and increased international sales. This implies that large multi-national companies need to look carefully at balancing their supply towards demand and look at their S&OP process as more of a multi-enterprise/multi-business process rather than within their silos; for instance, being able to position supply in tax efficient countries and moving it closer to customer when the demand signal arrives (looking at building capacity in Eastern European countries, etc.). IBP processes should allow visibility not just at the divisional level but at the corporate level too .

1. Working Capital Management: According to the ISM survey, respondents are reporting that their inventories are in general higher than their customer’s inventories. This is of course a result of network wide inventory reduction efforts that have gone on for many years. What it has really resulted in is pushing out of inventory upstream into the supply chain where every node believes that they are at the receiving end with respect to holding inventory. Companies need to really look at inventory from a working capital standpoint and as part of the IBP process. The working capital is dependent on the customer sales, supplier purchases and inventory – the IBP process is the only process that provides visibility to all three. These three variables have to be looked at holistically and not in silos. So, implement IBP processes that  can model supply, demand, finance and inventory in a holistic fashion

Figure. ISM Inventory Index for Manufacturers and their Customers

What are your thoughts? Do you agree with the analysis? Also, more importantly, why are the unemployment numbers so high when manufacturing is apparently growing? I have thoughts on this but would love to get your feedback.